> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://predicton-guide.gitbook.io/predicton/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://predicton-guide.gitbook.io/predicton/overview-en/publish-your-docs.md).

# Understanding Markets

A **market** is a prediction for a specific future event or question.

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Each market contains:

* **Question (Event statement)** — the event being predicted.\
  *Example:* *“Will Bitcoin be above $100k by Dec 31, 2025?”*
* **Possible outcomes** — usually two (“Yes” / “No”), but sometimes more (multi-outcome markets).
* **Current prices (odds)** — the cost to buy a share in a particular outcome. Prices are determined by supply and demand from other participants.
* **Resolution date** — the moment when the event is officially settled, and winners are determined.
* **Resolution source (oracle)** — a trusted source that confirms the actual outcome.

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### **Example**

**Market:** *"Will SpaceX land humans on Mars before 2030?"*

* **Yes** = 35¢ (the market estimates a 35% probability)
* **No** = 65¢

If you buy **100 shares** of “Yes” at 35¢:

* **Initial cost:** 100 × $0.35 = **$35 USD**
* **If the event happens:** you receive $1 per share → 100 × $1 = **$100 USD**
* **Profit:** **$65 USD**

If the event does not happen, your $35 stake is lost.

Note that you can sell your shares at any time, even before event outcome is known.

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### **Why it matters**

Markets allow you to:

* Bet on your knowledge, research, or intuition.
* See how public sentiment and probabilities change over time.
* Trade before the event ends — locking in profits or minimizing losses.

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## How Are Prediction Markets Resolved? <a href="#page-title" id="page-title"></a>

Markets are resolved using the **UMA Optimistic Oracle**, a smart contract–based oracle.

When the outcome of an event becomes clear, the market can be **“resolved”** (permanently closed).\
Market resolution follows the pre-defined rules specified in the market description.

When a market is resolved:

* Holders of winning shares receive **$1 per share**.
* Losing shares become worthless.
* Trading of shares in that market is no longer possible.